A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Thursday Pick

Again with no time so here is Thursday's pick, not that this game has any real implications for anything other than Chuck Pagano's job ...

Thursday:

Denver (4-9) at Indianapolis (3-10) - Colts

Domination

It's difficult, and somewhat foolhardy to read too much into the first of preseason games, right?  Maybe it is, but then again ...

The Broncos faced the Bears last night in their preseason opener.  The media takeaway for Denver is that they are not much closer to solving their quarterback riddle.  Sanchez through a fortunate TD to Damarius Thomas while being hit by former Bronco Danny Trevathan.  He ended his night with the sadly expected interception.  Seimian played more aggressively downfield and worked better than the cautious performance at practice would suggest.  Lynch looked raw but very talented, and very strong.  Interesting, but a conundrum to be solved another day.   Ronnie Hillman had a great night, with C.J. Anderson not playing.  One has to wonder if it's enough to keep his job.  Still, these were not my takeaways.

The Broncos defense took the field without 7 of last year's starters.  Trevathan is a Bear, Malik Jackson is a Jaguar, and David Bruton plays for the Taterskins.  The pro-bowlers Ward, Miller, Harris Jr., and Alib did not play.  As such, the results were less than optimal.  By optimal, I mean the offensive opponent gaining zero yards.  What did happen should have offensive coordinators league wide popping ulcer pills and coping with sleepless nights if they have to face the orange and blue.  Denver sent a message that preseason or not, 4 of last year's league best starters or not, this defense will reign woe on anyone.

The Bears gained 130 yards of total offense against a team featuring rookies and backups.  46% of Chicago plays resulted in 0 or negative yardage.  The closest the Bears got to the goal line was the Denver 46.  The Broncos racked 7 sacks, with one being for a safety.  2 points, K'ching  9 Different Bronco players had sacks or partial sacks, but sadly the Denver D had only 1 interception.  The game ended 22 to nothing, with Chicago proving to be utterly ineffective against guys who could start for other teams but won't make the roster in Denver.  These weren't the heroes who propelled Denver to the SB 50 win.  These are guys fighting for a job in the NFL, and they dominated the Bears.

I find this time of the NFL year to be somewhat sad.  2880 men show up for work at camp.  Only 1696 (not including practice squad players) will have a job in the NFL come Sept. 8th, when Von Miller gets his next chance to terrorize Cam Newton, opening the NFL season in Denver.  Preseason decides who gets a job, who plays for someone else, and who goes home.  It is sad that the Broncos are so deep on defense that some of the players who shone last night will not be in the mile high city on that Thursday night.  They are deep, complete and hungry.  Seattle has probably the best defensive backfield in football, with Sherman, Chancellor and Thomas.  Arizona may not agree.  The Rams and Panthers might vie with one another for the best front seven in football.  The Broncos just showed that they can compete with anyone using any 11 players they want. The Denver Broncos just sent a very clear message to the rest of the league.  'You don't think we're the best defense playing?  You'd better prove it.  Because we are, and we will.'

Osweiler, Sanchez, Elway and the Quarterback Premium

My sister (il) commented a response to my last post over on Facebook and I think it needs a lengthier reply than Facilebook tends to be convenient for.  Regarding Brock Osweiler leaving the Broncos, and more to the point Elway letting him go, she notes:

I know you're going to blast me for saying this but...I can't help but think some of this has to do with Elway's ego and preserving his place in Bronco history.
It's not like he didn't have seasons as a young QB when people questioned whether or not he should be there, before he became beloved in Denver's eyes.

That was most certainly true regarding the purge of Tim Tebow, or at least it appeared to be at the time.  Tebow was remarkably well loved in Denver.  I certainly didn't think he was a great quarterback, but 2011 was magical, one of the most fun seasons I've ever watched as a Broncos fan.  The list of Denver quarterbacks who've racked 7 straight wins is awfully short, and Tebow is on it, along with a couple of other guys named Elway and Manning.  Tebow actually holds a notable trivia record as a Bronco:  He threw the first touchdown pass on the first play of postseason overtime under the NFLs new overtime rules.  It definitely seemed personal when Elway went after Peyton Manning, drafted Osweiler and then traded Tebow to the Jets.  I think history will show that to be a very shrewd business move.  I admit that it was extremely jarring to the Broncos faithful.

To me, the Osweiler situation seems very different.  The Broncos traded away their first round draft pick in 2012, mostly because that little sh#t McDaniels had left the team draft deficient to trade up for Tebow.  The Broncos took Derek Wolfe early in round 2, a pick that has payed great dividends, and then Osweiler later in the round at the 57th pick.  I remember clearly that even then, people were scratching their heads.  The scouting reports on Brock had him going in round 2 or 3 to a team that needed a quarterback, and the Broncos had just scored a certain Hall of Famer at the position.  Osweiler had the size and mobility that Elway was looking for, reminiscent of himself I imagine.  But the Broncos had so many needs in that year that the draft pick earned a C grade from scout Bucky Brooks.   Much was made of the fact that Osweiler was the friend of Elway's son, again inserting the argument of Elway's ego where it may actually be misplaced.  Side note, the Broncos took Malik Jackson in round 5 of 2012 and it has been speculated that Denver will miss him on the D line more than Brock Osweiler under center.  What makes that speculation important is this, the Broncos scraped the bottom of the league last year in offensive production, even with Osweiler starting 7 games.  They were almost from week 1 the very top ranked defense, in part because of the fifth round pick at defensive tackle, Malik Jackson.  Osweiler, very much like Tebow, won very important games, two of them in overtime.  But an actual look at his stats shows a very pedestrian performance for a guy who had 3 years as under-study to one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Osweiler has amazing physical skills and a load of talent.  Pairing him with Lamar Miller and DeAndre Hopkins may prove that he can become elite in the league.  Montana pride demands that I hope so.  Professional football is still a business, and one has to ask if he's worth elite money.  At this point, the answer would have to be "No.".  At 15 million a year with incentives, the Broncos offered a fair deal to the man they had payed and Elway personally took a chance on.  I don't think Elway's ego had anything to do with Osweiler's decisions.  It was a money chase, and a smart one for the young QB.  This is a tight market year for quarterbacks.  The draft has only two top level QBs in Wentz and Goff.  The free agent market is slim, with only backups and two experienced men young enough to be reclamation projects, RGIII and Colin Kaepernick.  Quarterbacks are at a premium this year, and are cashing in on that fact.

Environment has (more than discussed) to do with that.  Last year, two perennial backups became franchise saviors.  Ryan Fitzpatrick damned near lead the Jets into the playoffs and Kirk Cousins was so important to the Washington Taterskins that they laid a franchise tag on him.  Washington let go the number 2 draft pick of 2012, Robert Griffin the third, who earned offensive rookie of the year in that season.  Too many teams are suffering from NoHasQB Simplex 1.   Over 45 different men started games at quarterback last year; I lost true count about week 12.  32 teams in the league, and over half of them relied on a backup or backup to backup to get the win.  4 of the 6 AFC playoff teams had started multiple people under center.  That fact is not lost on GMs or coaches.  The league is QB scared and willing to pay for not being so again.  Ball huckers are in high demand right now and there just aren't that many available in either draft or free agency.  The consequence is clear.  Middling quarterbacks are being payed near elite money.  Drew Brees, a certain Hall of Famer who holds the only passing records not surpassed by Peyton Manning, makes about 19.5 million dollars a year.  Brock Osweiler, who never started a full season in college and has only started 7 games in the NFL is now making 18 million a year.  Sam Bradford, who has yet to make it through an NFL season uninjured is making 18 million a year.  Kirk Cousins, a perennial backup, under the franchise tag is slated to make a whole lot more.  Mid-level quarterbacks are having  a banner year, and good on them for chasing the paycheck.  Still, that drives the price up for every team, even those like the Broncos who have had success by paying defense.  Elway was not egotistical in refusing to pay a middling QB elite money.  He was smart.  He still has to negotiate a long term contract with Von Miller, which will likely make Miller the highest payed defensive player in history.  He still has to negotiate for a running back, with C.J. Anderson accepting tender from Miami.  He still has to find a way to pay Demarcus Ware, or let him go.  I don't think Elway's ego had anything to do with this.  I think it was all business from the get go.  Given the fact that Denver just won a Super Bowl on the power of its defense, it's hard to imagine that Elway would do anything other that shop the bargain bin for suport under center.

Which brings us, strangely, back to Tebow and Sanchez.  One of the teams that Tebow beat in 2011 was the New York Jets.  Sanchez was the established star in the game, having led the Jets to two straight AFC title games.  Denver won in overtime.  After the 2011 season it was very difficult to see Mark Sanchez as anything but a backup quarterback.  That is, unless he had a stellar defense to carry the load and a quarterback whisperer in his ear.  That's what he has in Denver.  The game is still afoot.  If Elway can extinguish the other fires, Anderson, Miller and Ware, then the QB situation can be addressed, either through trade or draft.  I agree with this assessment, that it's time for Bronco Nation to just RELAX.  This story isn't over just yet.

From The Penthouse to the Outhouse, and That's How It Goes

In less than a week, The Denver Broncos have gone from having 3 quarterbacks to only 1.  Their Hall of Famer has retired, and his understudy/QB of the future having tasted being the quarterback of the now has left for Houston.  Only Trevor Siemian remains, a 7th round pick from the private step-child of the Big Ten, Northwestern.  He's never taken a regular season snap in the NFL, and Siemian has never even practiced with the first team offense.  To make matters worse, running back C.J. Anderson has signed an offer sheet with the Miami Dolphins.  As a restricted free agent, the Broncos have 5 days to match the offer or the Power running back who got the Broncos through to the Super Bowl 50 win also walks.  No problem since the Broncos have RB Ronnie Hillman and the best defense in the league, right?  Save these:  Hillman is an unrestricted free agent and his production was less than stellar, especially after Anderson got healthy near the end of October.  Defensively, there are 3 problems.  1)  Defensive tackle Malik Jackson is now a Jaguar.  2)  The 7th best inside linebacker in the league, Danny Trevathon, who led the Broncos in tackles in 2014 is now a Chicago Bear.  3)  Wade Phillips led defenses have a nasty habit of falling precipitously off in his second year as Defensive coordinator.  Given that Denver still has the 'No Fly Zone' with 3 elite corners, T.J. Ward, who is the nasty at safety that I have argued is always the key to defensive success (Dennis Smith, Steve Atwater, John Lynch ...) and they have the very best pass rushing duo in football, Ward and Miller, I don't worry too much about the defensive strength ... for now.

The Quarterback position, however, is a full blown crisis.  As St. Louis, Houston, Cleveland, Buffalo and even Denver itself proved last year it is extremely hard for even powerfully defensive teams to win while suffering from NoHasQB Simplex 1.  Houston made the playoffs and laid an egg against KC because of quarterback play.  Denver rode the defense all the way to a title, but one has to wonder how they'd have fared against a Pittsburgh team coming to town at full strength.  With the greatest mind ever in football (Manning) and a mobile talented QB (Osweiler) the Broncos did just enough to win it all.  Thay are not going to do that with Siemian.  I feel like I'm wounding Bronco Nation seriously by even comparing this team to the Browns, but the comparison is apt.  This has not been a good week to be a Bronco fan.  When Elway retired, Denver had Brian Griese, son of a Hall of Famer.  But Denver is not kind to QBs if they are not Elway or Manning or bear the hint of 'legendary'.  It's possible that right there is why Osweiler left.

Brock is a Montana kid, from Kalispell.  He will get all kinds of love from the good folks here regardless of circumstance.   So it is worthwhile to examine what happened.  The simple answer is money, money happened.  Denver offered 16 mil a year with incentives for 3 years.  Houston offered 18 million a year for 4 years with 37 of it guaranteed for 2 years.  Of course he chased the money to Texas.  Much is already being written about ego and slight that the Broncos benched him when they shouldn't have and blah blah blah.  This had nothing to do with that, it was about cash up front.   If we do want to speculate concerning the mind of Brock Osweiler, then let's look at what mattered.  1)  Osweiler played  high school ball in Montana, and then fled to Arizona.  He was drafted by Elway and moved to the high hills again in Denver.  But he and his wife still live in Arizona.  It's just possible, more possible than the pundits who don't live here admit, that he just wanted to get the hell out of Winter in the Rockies.  Also, there's this.  Osweiler started for less than one season at ASU.  He started a grand total of 7 games in the NFL and didn't complete the 7th after throwing 2 interceptions.  This kid is a gigantic question mark, probably even to himself.  He had 2 choices, go to a team that assured him of 37 million dollars regardless of performance (save that he's cut after his first year) or stay with a team that has the defense to pull his mistakes out of the fire.  He followed the money, and he will be overpayed.  Today, a person vociferously and angrily ranted about a characterization of Brock that he has ONLY won five games.  They were important games, but that is accurate, and no amount of Montana pride is going to change that fact.  He did not earn the money he will get, but he was smart for taking it.  The Broncos were smart for not offering it.  Osweiler might be terrific with Lamar Miller in the backfield and the best young receiver in football in DeAndre Hopkins.  Or, he might fall flat on his face.  The Texans were willing to make that bet, and Adam Schein agrees thinking the Texans will win more games in 2016 than the Broncos will.  (This is the same guy who assured us all that the Colts would face the Packers in Super Bowl 50, just sayin' ...)  Elway was smart for not taking that bet.

Still, the Broncos have no quarterback going into 2016.  The 'word' is that they are dealing for a trade to acquire Colin Kaepernick.  That would be a good fit.  Except at offensive line and running back, the Broncos are deep.  Kaepernick has flourished under coaches who understand quarterbacking (remind me what position Kubiak played) and a strong defense.  Since San Francisco has more holes than a country signpost, he can probably be had for a second round draft pick.  Much of Bronco Nation is telling us all to trust John Elway.  In this case, I do.   I, like many in Montana, would have loved to have seen a Montana boy be our quarterback.  If not that, then a kid from former Big Sky member Nevada Reno will certainly do.  If there is one thing I trust Elway about implicitly it is that he will find quality under center.  I don't think Schein is right.  Houston has to play Denver next year, and Osweiler will get to say 'hello' to Demarcus Ware, Shane Ray and Von Miller in a whole new way.  KC has done well to keep their defense.  San Diego has improved on defense through free agency.  Oakland will be a terror next year.    The Broncos, defending champions, will not be in the outhouse next year.  The question is, will Brock Osweiler?

MISSING!

MISSING

Secondary

 

 

Goes by the name “Broncos”

Last seen near Denver, Colorado

Orange with blue and white markings

Generally well behaved.  Loves to play catch and return.  Doesn’t like cold or birds

 

 

If found call 1-800 JackDelRio or

1-800-JohnElway