3-1 in picks last week. I blame Marvin Lewis. What in the hell kind of game plan did Cincinnati have for Houston? Every team that has defeated the Texans this year did the same thing. They stacked the box to stop Arian Foster putting the game in Matt Shaub's hands. The Bengals thought a heavy pass rush was the way to go, and Foster slashed them up the middle time and again. Teams that beat the Texans knew that you can't stop J.J. Watt, so they played a short quick pass roll out game with truncated dig routes. Not the Bengals. They trusted the pocket. ~sigh~
If I had a vote for Rookie of the Year, and I obviously don't, mine would go to Russell Wilson of the Seahawks. No offense meant to anybody, but he simply earned it. RGIII has resurrected the hope for a storied franchise and inflamed the passions of a large market fan base. I seem to recall that he had the considerable help of another RotY candidate, Alfred Morris. Andrew Luck surpassed Cam Newton's rookie passing record, and looked damned fine doing it. It helps to have a HOF lock for a receiver, and to be playing in the second weakest Division of the NFL. Wilson lead his team to a record of 11-5, (just as Luck did), and did so with poise, intelligence and leadership. I realize that RotY voting is based on the regular season, but still. It takes a good quarterback to lead a team to victory from a 14-0 deficit in the first quarter. It takes a very good quarterback to do so in the playoffs. RGIII and Andrew Luck will be watching on the couch this weekend as Wilson leads his team against the best of the NFC.
I do not want to make picks for the NFC this weekend. One might as well flip a coin with as much accuracy as I can muster. Still, that is the task at hand, so ...
NFC
Seattle Seahawks (5) at Atlanta Falcons (1)
If football games were won by sheer ferocity, then we would already be celebrating the inevitable Seattle Super Bowl win. This team attacks like few I've seen in the last decade. Still, there is a bit more to it. The Seahawks must travel all the way across the country to the very farthest venue (save Miami) to play in the Georgia Dome. I'm just not convinced they will have the energy or intensity to beat what is technically a better team.
But Atlanta probably is a better team. The wide-out tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White is exceptional. Gonzales is the best there's ever been, and will likely retire after this year. He's got one whole helluva lot to play for. And Matt Ryan actually is what Joe Flacco thinks he can be, a truly elite quarterback in the NFL. The Seahawks are savages in coverage, so edge to the defense against the longer pass from Ryan. But Tony Gonzales changes the equation to ball-control. Without Chris Clemens, I don't think Seattle can apply significant pressure. This is one game where the bye is significant because the team which played last week got banged up and weaker.
Seattle Seahawks - 17, Atlanta Falcons - 38
Green Bay Packers (3) at San Francisco 49ers (2)
The Green Bay Packers are as unpredictably good in the playoffs as the New York Giants. They step up to a whole new level. This is one case where I'm not convinced that Alex Smith might be a better choice for QB than Kaepernick. Smith is good at ball control. Kaepernick runs and exposes himself, which might not be such a good thing. Clay Mathews and AJ Hawk are ~ unforgiving to exposed players. As much as I believe that Peyton Manning deserves the NFL MVP, and that Adrian Peterson carried his team on his back, Aaron Rodgers pulls the discount double check out of his active buttocks like none I've ever seen. Green Bay could well win this.
However, the San Francisco defense has shown time and again that defense wins championships. They play their positions with precision, and no sandlot tactics can overcome that in the 60 minutes of an away football game. The Packers have traded injury for injury, and Rodgers is the target this weekend.
Green Bay - 20, San Francisco -24
AFC
Houston Texans (3) at New England Patriots (2)
Can the Texans win this game? Of course they can. Do I want the Texans to win this game? Well Yes! Will the Texans win this game? That's a tricky proposition, at best. As I indicated above, the teams that beat Houston did so in a particular way, a way which plays to the strengths of New England. The Patriots D, anchored by Vince Wilfork, has become one of the very best against the run, even from Arian Foster. Tom Brady is probably the leagues best at the 3 step drop and shoot. That's why his tight ends are so prolific. The opponent knows what New England is going to do. They just dare you to stop it, and few teams can. I don't think the Texans, in a hostile environment, can do so.
Houston - 13, New England -34
Baltimore Ravens (4) at Denver Broncos (1)
Oh my. Ray Lewis is retiring and doesn't that give emotional strength to the Ravens D. Uh, no, not nearly so much as his presence on the field does. Unlike the stomping that Denver administered in week 15, the Ravens defense will have Lewis, Ellerbe and Pollard as defensive weapons. That's your narrative right there. Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense will have to defeat the Ravens defense. Without those three mentioned players the Ravens defense was 16th in the league. With them, they are more likely among the top 7.
But hold on. When Denver beat Baltimore, in Baltimore, 4 weeks ago, it wasn't the Bronco offense against the Raven defense that really mattered. It was the Bronco defense against Joe Flacco and the Raven offense. Those were at full strength, until the Broncos took out Pierce, as they have two other running backs in the last 6 weeks. So it will be this weekend.
HOF bound quarterback? Check. Top 2 defense? Check. Excellent coaching on both sides of the ball? Check. Good special teams play. Check. The Broncos have not had that combination since the 1998 season. I think we know what happened then.
Happy retirement, Ray. And I'm glad you'll be gone.
Baltimore - 13, Denver - 31
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