1-3 for picks last week, though only one outcome was truly surprising. In my opinion, the 'Niners and Saints played the game of the year. Alex Smith probably played the game of his career. I thought my wife, a diehard 49ers fan, was going to have an aneurism during the last 5 minutes of that game. San Francisco truly looked like a championship team.
Of course, the one game I hoped most to be wrong about was the one I picked correctly. The Patriots walloped the Broncos. Tebow haters across the land were rejoicing at his failure. It's probably not worth reminding many of them how they kvetched that the Broncos defense was really responsible for the Denver wins that Tebow got all the credit for. Of course they were, just as that defense was in large part responsible for the blow out in Foxboro. There was no pressure on Brady. With the exception of Champ Bailey, the secondary looked confused in coverage and the linebackers looked even worse. Don't get me wrong, these are things John Fox can and will fix when the Broncos make the playoffs next year. ~heh~
Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips deserve enormous credit for what they accomplished with the Texans this year. If Jim Harbaugh didn't already have 'Coach of the Year' locked up, I would suggest that it should and would be Kubiak. The Texans played a truly inspired game against Baltimore but came up short due to inexperience, especially at the quarterback spot. I'm not taking anything away from T.J. Yeats. I don't think any other 3rd string Rookie in the league could have come close to his performance. Now, NFL coaches are prohibited from complaining about the officiating, but I sure as hell am not. I was disgusted by the "quality" of officiating during the Ravens-Texans matchup. For the Ravens to have gone through that game with not one penalty is a goddamned travesty. I'm all for letting the players play. But letting them play dirty is just sickening. On Houston's first punt, there was a blatant and obvious hold (tackle) on the return. Ray Lewis put another of his signature forearm helmet blows to a Texan receiver. Yes that is illegal and no it wasn't called. Bouldin's helmet hammer of a Texan was right in front of an official and caused a scrum. No call. Despite the mistakes of Jacoby Jones and the interceptions of Yeats, the Texans were in that game until the end. A few calls to play fair against the Dirty Birds might have actually given Houston a chance to win. ~sigh~
For the record, I'm already sick of the calls for a Harbaugh rematch. To me that's as pointless a narrative as 'two black coaches meeting in the Super Bowl' when Lovey Smith's Bears met Tony Dungy's Colts. For me, and I think I've expressed pretty well why, it is about the game, not the social or family drama. I quite earnestly do not want to spend the next 2 weeks hearing about how difficult this is on Mom and Pop Harbaugh. If it comes to pass, in my mind it won't be about Jim v. John. It will be Coach Harbaugh's 49ers against Coach Harbaugh's Ravens. To be honest, I don't think that will happen.
NFC
New York Giants (4) at San Francisco 49ers (2)
I've written it dozens of times and been proven correct dozens of times. The New York Football Giants are not the same team in the playoffs that they are in the regular season. Every single one of them, from Eli Manning to Brandon Jacobs, steps up their game a notch or two. Just think. Six weeks ago, Tom Coughlin's job was on the line. Ya' kinda gotta like these guys. Against the Packers, Eli exploited a fast defense that was weak on the coverage and thin against the run. He also proved that he is an elite quarterback. For some reason, people still find that surprising. Uhmm, the 'Niners aren't the Packers. They aren't susceptible to the run, and they aren't soft in coverage. This is a solid group who will make a quarterback earn every point. Alex Smith is proving a very capable field general. He doesn't have to make every extravagant throw, and he proved last week that he can run with some authority. That's something Eli has shown little aptitude for. The front four for the Giants are good at pass rush, very effective against Rodgers, but they lack the shift to run defense and Gore knows how to exploit that.
Weather won't be an issue. Perhaps earthquakes or lighting issues will. It's all on the D's and San Fran simply is better. I don't think this will be all that high-scoring but ... My wife is calling this.
New York - 24, San Fransisco - 31 (my pick would be 16 to 24)
Baltimore Ravens (2) at New England Patriots (1)
Well looky here. I've finely found a team (other than the Raiders) that I dislike more than the Hatriots. Of course, that would be Art Modell's bastard Baltimore step-child, the Ravens. They are dirty and I haven't a doubt about that. They win by intimidation. Except the Patriots don't easily intimidate. So, it's the Lawful Evil of Belichick against the Chaotic Evil of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. My money would be on the Hatriots. Defense may win championships, but dirty defense can't compensate for weak offense, especially if the officials are doing their job. That is precisely what Flacco offers. Ed Reed was right to call him out. He is not playing like a championship quarterback, and the internal team struggle will manifest itself in Foxboro.
For no known reason, the Patriots' defense has been the worst in league most of the season. They didn't look that against the Broncos. The Texans showed New England the exact path to victory. Oher can be duped and Flacco is flappable. I expect pressure on Flacco most of the game, and Flacco can run, but not even close to like Tebow. On the flip side, the Ravens couldn't seem to pressure a rookie with pass rush, but pressured him with coverage instead. Does anyone really think that Brady will fall for such stunts? He has a 5 progression check down, and is the fastest in the NFL at going through it. I'm kind of thinking that Brady will throw for 350 yards, and that's grossly conservative.
The other thing that the Ravens couldn't do was stop Arian Foster. Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis isn't Arian Foster, but he's pretty good. And Danny Woodhead, a tiny little tot, surprises the most aggressive linebackers with his power and speed. Get him in space and he'll kill you. That is precisely what Belichick will do. Expect some runs from the tight ends as well.
Since the beginning of the season, we've all listened to the pundits tell us how these Ravens are better than the team that won the Super Dooper Bowl. Maybe they are. But they are not better than teams that challenge them. The Patriots win this.
Baltimore - 27, New England - 34
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