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October 08, 2010



Silver gives the Reps a 24% chance of winning the Senate. And gives Dems a 28% chance of keeping the House. And the latter comes down to the 37 toss-up house races: Republicans have to win 26 of the 37 to take a majority.

And, in any event, it'll be a 3 or 5 seat majority or something. Really, nothing short of a 40 seat majority is any kind of "mandate." I mean look how Republicans reacted to 2008: who exactly stepped aside to let the mandate be exercised?

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