Well, I Pooched That Bet

In an earlier post, I wrote that if the over/under for Sotomayor's confirmation vote was set at 70, I'd take the over.  See, here's what I figured.

All Democrats, and both supporting Independents, would vote for confirmation.  I suspected that either Byrd or Kennedy (or both) would miss the vote.  So at worst, that's 58.  Kennedy did miss the vote, by the way.

I figured that the 8 more moderate Republicans (read that as the sane ones) would vote for, bringing the tally to 66.  Lugar had already stated he would vote for her confirmation, and I thought he would be able to bring on at least 4 more of the hard-core Republicans from states with questionable races coming up, and/or states with larger Latino populations.  That would make 71, even without Byrd or Kennedy.

I also figured correctly that the NRA threats would fizzle, leaving Republicans more secure to actually vote for their constituents and not the special interests of the gun lobby.

What I didn't reckon was how weak moderate Republicans have become in the face of the Limbaugh driven clown machine GOP.  Two of the Senators I thought would be swayed by Lugar's prominence and their state's Latin populace were McCain and Ensign.  That was especially true of Ensign considering the fact that he isn't his state's favored family man right about now.  No such luck, or display of brains on his part.  I also thought Hutchinson of Texas might rise to the occasion.

The final vote was 68 - yea to 31 - nay.  I guess I lose my bet.

Regardless, congratulations to Sonia Sotomayor, the newest Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States of America.

Comments

[Mihalis]

Glad to hear it.

Can you drop me an email Wulfgar?

[Joyce/Mom]

So, are you going to participate in the "town meeting" with Obama in Belgrade tomorrow? Or do you , by any chance, have an in by way of your weekly (or monthly) radio show? Maybe you'll be asked to be one of the moderators or be asked to introduce him! Keep us informed... Joyce/Mom

[Wulfgar]

No; I am not well favored among local progressives. I haven't been on the radio for a while, and that's why.

I tried to break away from work this morning to get tickets and couldn't do so. Unfortunately, I'll be sitting this one out.