It's not often that I get a chance to make a prediction that will likely be prove4n wrong before I get it written. So I just had to jump on this opportunity.
Matt has a source that claims that Senator Larry Craig (R-Closet) will be resigning today. This news has enough election 2008 implications that the story is running at the Orange Website of Doom. I've known Matt long enough to trust him on most things, but I get the feeling that he may be wrong this time. I don't think Senator Craig will resign (at least not without one helluva fight). As I see it, Larry Craig has two very good personal reasons *not* to step down.
1) He doesn't owe anybody loyalty at this point. As quick as most Democrats were to point out his hypocrisy, or just point and laugh, the Republicans (online, in person, within and without of Idaho) were even quicker to throw this guy under a bus. Their vitriol has been far harsher and meaner than anything coming from Democrats. It's already had a profound effect on his life. He's been stripped of any real Senatorial power (other than filling a seat and voting), and Romney dropped him double-quick, like any other stance or person that might hurt his campaign.
It's not any mystery why there is such a Republican backlash/outrage over this. It's pure self and party interest. They want the guy gone to 'help' (that being completely relative) their electoral chances in 2008. Now, suppose you're Larry Craig, and all of your friends have just stabbed you in the back (castrated you is a more apt metaphor.) What the hell do you think you owe them? Nothing. And all you have to do for payback is ... nothing. Stay put. Don't budge. Maybe it's just me, but I'm not seeing any external incentive, here, for Craig to resign.
2) If he resigns, he admits to being gay (at least tangentially.) This is a
gay guy who just gave a speech claiming to the high holy heavens that he's so not gay he doesn't even smile. HE"S NOT GAY! Don't you get it? He's not ... the gay ... he doesn't have it! This dude is so deeply in denial that he won't take even the first step towards his greatest nightmare, being found to be moderately happy. That road leads only one place, my friend ... Gayville!
All jocularity aside, for Larry Craig to resign is for him to admit to personal demons he simply won't face. Everything about this episode, so far, has been everybody else's fault. He will hang onto that Senate seat , until and unless he can find a clear way to make this someone else's fault, and exonerate himself from the accusations of manlove. I find that sad, but still a compelling reason to believe that no resignation will be forthcoming today.
I hope you take from this a few small things. Never underestimate the latent homophobia of much of the mountain west. It runs pretty deep here. That's not something to fear or 'hate' or hurl your vile bile upon. It's just the way things are, at this point in time. It can be kind of tragic (see Craig, Larry, US Senate). It can be kind of violent (see Sheppard, Mathew). It's a mythological hold over belief from a time that probably didn't exist. But we're working on it. Maybe the whole affaire de toilette will help shake a few people loose from their fears ... I kinda doubt it, but I can hope.
Now, just for your mirth and entertainment, good reader, I'm going to post this. I won't check to see if Matt is correct and I am horribly wrong first. Singer has an awfully good track record, so I wouldn't bet against him. But I guess we'll see. Either way, enjoy the show.
UPDATE: WOOHOO! I rock. I rule. No resignation today. Okay, so maybe it's tomorrow. But still, I rock, I rule.
(Really Larry. Don't do it, man. You can still be totally hetero, really still totally. All you have to do is tell the NRC to piss off, and claim your throne. Don't resign. You got nothing to lose. Stick to your guns!)